Update for Fri May 24

Thursday's price action, with a decent recovery off Wednesday's low, was not quite as bearish as the day after the Nov 16, 2012 low (cash index chart) was bullish. 

However, as I said yesterday, "the significance and final candle pattern depends on where (the day) closes", and Thursday still posted a lower close than Wednesday's outside range bar.

Next downside target remains at 1620.00. Below there is a zone of support from 1593.00 - 1595.50.

A return above the current session high at 1655.25 would suggest to me that a several day consolidation will form instead. And any force above 1664.75 - 1666.13 would negate the bearish outlook and set up a retest of Wed's contract high.

Updated levels below: 

1694.50 -- 200% proj of 1476.25/1558.75 (Mar 15 high) from 1529.50 (Mar 18 low)

1688.25 -- 175.% proj of 1247.00 (Jun 4 low)/1451.00 (Oct 5 former high) from 1331.25 (Nov 15 low)

1685.75 -- Wed May 22 contract high

1673.25 -- Tue May 21 former high

1664.75 -- previous 60 min bottom, near 1666.13 (midpt May 22)

1659.00 -- Thur May 23 high

1655.25 -- Fri May 24 current session high

Resistances above


Supports below

1632.75 -- Thur May 23 low
1620.00 -- Thur May 9 low
1615.50 -- midpt May 7, near 1615.25 (Mon May 6 former high) 
1609.25 -- Tue May 7 low, near 1607.25 (Mon May 6 low)
1601.88 -- midpt May 3
1593.00 -- Thur Apr 11 former high, near 1594.25 (Thur May 2 former high) and near 1595.50 (Wed May 1 former high)

Update for Thur May 23

Looking at the cash S&P daily chart, when was the last time a daily candlestick looked like the one posted on Wednesday? By my account, the Nov 16, 2012 low (bullish version). That low was followed by a long white candle, confirming the reversal and sustained uptrend.

Returning to the current scenario on the June E-mini, trading so far for the May 23 session resembles that mid Nov cash index action, with a long black candle attempting to form -- remember, the significance and final candle pattern depends on where today closes!!

Last to note, Wednesday's trade action covered about a 40 point range, and today's action so far covered about 30 points of ground. There's no limitation to the downside just based on relative daily ranges, but they're a useful guide. My next downside target is 1620.00 and I'd be surprised to see much lower than that in today's session.

If the market does push lower than 1620.00, 1593.00 - 1595.50 is the next key support area.

Any recovery attempts are likely to be limited by 1664.75 - 1666.13 (latter is midpt of Wed's range).

Updated levels below: 

1698.25 -- 150% proj of 1375.75 (Dec 28 low)/1523.75 (Feb 20 former high) from 1476.25 (Feb 25 low)

1694.50 -- 200% proj of 1476.25/1558.75 (Mar 15 high) from 1529.50 (Mar 18 low)

1688.25 -- 175.% proj of 1247.00 (Jun 4 low)/1451.00 (Oct 5 former high) from 1331.25 (Nov 15 low)

1685.75 -- Wed May 22 contract high

1673.25 -- Tue May 21 former high

1664.75 -- previous 60 min bottom

1659.00 -- Thur May 23 current session high

1653.25 -- former 60 min bar low

Resistances above

Supports below

1646.00 -- Thur May 16 low
1642.75 -- Wed May 15 low
1632.25 -- Thur May 9 former high
1620.00 -- Thur May 9 low
1615.50 -- midpt May 7, near 1615.25 (Mon May 6 former high) 
1609.25 -- Tue May 7 low, near 1607.25 (Mon May 6 low)
1601.88 -- midpt May 3
1593.00 -- Thur Apr 11 former high, near 1594.25 (Thur May 2 former high) and near 1595.50 (Wed May 1 former high)

Update for Wed May 22

Bulls target 1679.75 next. Force through there would suggest an extension towards 1698.25. Any dips should be limited to 1660.00 in the short-term. Below would risk a pullback towards 1646.00. Updated levels below: 

1705.88 -- 150% proj of 1476.25/1593.00 (Apr 11 high) from 1530.75 (Apr 18 low)

1698.25 -- 150% proj of 1375.75/1523.75 from 1476.25

1694.50 -- 200% proj of 1476.25/1558.75 (Mar 15 high) from 1529.50 (Mar 18 low)

1688.25 -- 175.% proj of 1247.00 (Jun 4 low)/1451.00 (Oct 5 former high) from 1331.25 (Nov 15 low)

1679.75 -- 137.5% proj of 1375.75 (Dec 28 low)/1523.75 (Feb 20 former high) from 1476.25 (Feb 25 low)

Resistances above

Supports below

1660.00 -- Tue May 21 low
1653.25 -- 60 min higher low
1646.00 -- Thur May 16 low
1642.75 -- Wed May 15 low
1632.25 -- Thur May 9 former high
1620.00 -- Thur May 9 low
1615.50 -- midpt May 7, near 1615.25 (Mon May 6 former high) 
1609.25 -- Tue May 7 low, near 1607.25 (Mon May 6 low)
1601.88 -- midpt May 3
1594.25 -- Thur May 2 former high, near 1595.50 (Wed May 1 former high)
1589.50 -- Fri May 3 low
1579.75 -- 60 min higher low
1576.00 -- Wed May 1 low

Skinny on the Mini for Mon May 20

Weekly: Made a new contract high at 1666.00 on Friday. just over a cluster of four projected resistance levels:

1663.56 -- 162.5% proj of 1476.25/1558.75 (Mar 15 high) from 1529.50 (Mar 18 low)
1662.75 -- 162.5% proj of 1247.00 (Jun 4 low)/1451.00 (Oct 5 former high) from 1331.25 (Nov 15 low)
1662.09 -- 112.5% proj of 1476.25/1593.00 (Apr 11 high) from 1530.75 (Apr 18 low)
1661.25 -- 125% proj of 1375.75 (Dec 28 low)/1523.75 (Feb 20 former high) from 1476.25 (Feb 25 low)

March 2009 low was at 666.00 on the cash index. So that's interesting to note, but not something to trade (short) just yet. The trend is still up, but the first sign of change on the weekly chart would be if the market took out last week's low at 1621.50 (Mon May 13).

Daily: More interesting to me is that the key daily support is now at 1620.00 (Thur May 9 low), so close to the key weekly level. So 1621.50/1620.00 is the zone to watch, to determine whether 1666.00 might be an important high.

60 min: Corrects lower off the contract high, and 1646.00 provides the most immediate support. Futures pushing above 1666.00 would target 1679.75 next. 

Levels are below:



1705.88 -- 150% proj of 1476.25/1593.00 from 1530.75)

1694.50 -- 200% proj of 1476.25/1558.75 from 1529.50, near 1698.25 (150% proj of 1375.75/1523.75 from 1476.25)

1688.25 -- 175.% proj of 1247.00/1451.00 from 1331.25

1679.75 -- 137.5% proj of 1375.75/1523.75 from 1476.25

1666.00 -- Fri May 17 contract high 

Resistances above

Supports below

1653.25 -- 60 min higher low
1646.00 -- Thur May 16 low
1642.75 -- Wed May 15 low
1632.25 -- Thur May 9 former high
1620.00 -- Thur May 9 low, near 1621.50 (Mon May 13 low)
1615.50 -- midpt May 7, near 1615.25 (Mon May 6 former high) 
1609.25 -- Tue May 7 low, near 1607.25 (Mon May 6 low)
1601.88 -- midpt May 3
1594.25 -- Thur May 2 former high, near 1595.50 (Wed May 1 former high)
1589.50 -- Fri May 3 low
1579.75 -- 60 min higher low
1576.00 -- Wed May 1 low

Update for Thur May 16

Posted new contract high at 1659.75 on Wed just below projected resistance cluster. Pullbacks may delay bulls, but while 1642.75 holds, outlook is for further strength. Through the 4-level cluster would target 1679.75 next. Below 1642.75 would instead open a deeper setback towards 1632.25 which guards 1620.00. Updated levels below:

1705.88 -- 150% proj of 1476.25/1593.00 from 1530.75)

1694.50 -- 200% proj of 1476.25/1558.75 from 1529.50, near 1698.25 (150% proj of 1375.75/1523.75 from 1476.25)

1688.25 -- 175.% proj of 1247.00/1451.00 from 1331.25

1679.75 -- 137.5% proj of 1375.75/1523.75 from 1476.25

Cluster:
1663.56 -- 162.5% proj of 1476.25/1558.75 (Mar 15 high) from 1529.50 (Mar 18 low)
1662.75 -- 162.5% proj of 1247.00 (Jun 4 low)/1451.00 (Oct 5 former high) from 1331.25 (Nov 15 low)
1662.09 -- 112.5% proj of 1476.25/1593.00 (Apr 11 high) from 1530.75 (Apr 18 low)
1661.25 -- 125% proj of 1375.75 (Dec 28 low)/1523.75 (Feb 20 former high) from 1476.25 (Feb 25 low)

1659.75 -- Wed May 15 contract high

Resistances above

Supports below

1642.75 -- Wed May 15 low
1632.25 -- Thur May 9 former high
1620.00 -- Thur May 9 low
1615.50 -- midpt May 7, near 1615.25 (Mon May 6 former high) 
1609.25 -- Tue May 7 low, near 1607.25 (Mon May 6 low)
1601.88 -- midpt May 3

Update for Tue May 14

Please not here will be no update tomorrow (Wed May 15) morning.

Broke above last Thur's short-term range high to post new contract highs. Bulls target 1647.50 (major equality target). Above would stage a cluster of four projected resistances from 1661.25 - 1663.56. The 1620.00 low now supports and guards 1609.25/1607.25. Updated levels below:

1661.25 -- 125% proj of 1375.75/1523.75 from 1476.25, near 1662.09 (112.5% proj of 1476.25/1593.00 from 1530.75), near 1662.75 (162.5% proj of 1247.00/1451.00 from 1331.25), and near 1663.56 (162.5% proj of 1476.25/1558.75 from 1529.50)

1653.25 -- 150% proj of 1476.25/1558.75 from 1529.50

1647.50 -- 100% proj of 1476.25/1593.00 from 1530.75

1642.75 -- 112.5% proj of 1375.75 (Dec 28 low)/1523.75 (Feb 20 former high) from 1476.25 (Feb 25 low), near 1642.94 (137.5% proj of 1476.25/1558.75 (Mar 15 high) from 1529.50 (Mar 18 low)]

1637.25 -- 150% proj of 1247.00 (Jun 4 low)/1451.00 (Oct 5 former high) from 1331.25 (Nov 15 low)

Resistances above

Supports below

1620.00 -- Thur May 9 low
1615.50 -- midpt May 7, near 1615.25 (Mon May 6 former high) 
1609.25 -- Tue May 7 low, near 1607.25 (Mon May 6 low)
1601.25 -- 1 min bar low, near 1601.88 (midpt May 3)
1594.25 -- Thur May 2 former high, near 1595.50 (Wed May 1 former high)
1589.50 -- Fri May 3 low
1579.75 -- 60 min higher low
1576.00 -- Wed May 1 low

Skinny on the Mini for Mon May 13

1661.25 -- 125% proj of 1375.75/1523.75 from 1476.25, near 1662.09 (112.5% proj of 1476.25/1593.00 from 1530.75), near 1662.75 (162.5% proj of 1247.00/1451.00 from 1331.25), and 1663.56 (162.5% proj of 1476.25/1558.75 from 1529.50)

1653.25 -- 150% proj of 1476.25/1558.75 from 1529.50

1647.50 -- 100% proj of 1476.25/1593.00 from 1530.75

1642.75 -- 112.5% proj of 1375.75 (Dec 28 low)/1523.75 (Feb 20 former high) from 1476.25, near 1642.94 (137.5% proj of 1476.25/1558.75 from 1529.50)

1637.25 -- 150% proj of 1247.00 (Jun 4 low)/1451.00 (Oct 5 former high) from 1331.25 (Nov 15 low)

1632.25 -- Fri May 10 contract high, near 1632.91 [87.5% proj of 1476.25 (Feb 25 low)/1593.00 (Apr 11 high) from 1530.75 (Apr 18 low)] and near 1632.63 [125% proj of 1476.25/1558.75 (Mar 15 high) from 1529.50 (Mar 18 low)]

Resistances above

Weekly: Maintains upleg from 1530.75 higher low (Thur Apr 18)

Daily: Consolidates within last Thur's range, and around rising trendline resistance (joins Jan 29/Feb 1 highs), and just beneath 1632.91/1632.63 projected resistance zone.

60 min: Range trades in triangular fashion. Outlook is for a breakout for new contract highs, seeking 1647.50 first (major equality target). Above would stage a cluster of four projected resistances from 1661.25 - 1663.56. Below 1617.00 - 1615.25, however, would defer for a deeper correction towards 1609.25/1607.25 which shields 1595.50/1594.25.

Supports below

1620.00 -- Thur May 9 low
1617.00 -- Wed May 8 low, near 1615.50 (midpt May 7) and 1615.25 (Mon May 6 former high) 
1609.25 -- Tue May 7 low, near 1607.25 (Mon May 6 low)
1605.50 -- 5 min bar low
1601.25 -- 1 min bar low, near 1601.88 (midpt May 3)
1594.25 -- Thur May 2 former high, near 1595.50 (Wed May 1 former high)
1589.50 -- Fri May 3 low
1585.50 -- 60 min former pivot bar high