Tuesday, September 3, 2013

THIS BLOG HAS MOVED!

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www.skinnyonthemini.com

Visit the site and sign up for the new Skinny on the Mini e-newsletter to continue to receive my FREE analysis on the ES market. Updates will resume no later than Monday September 9.

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~ Hima

Wednesday, August 21, 2013

Update for Wed Aug 21

8:49 AM EST ESU13
**My next post will be on Tuesday September 3 - enjoy the rest of your summer and have a terrific Labor Day weekend!**

Yesterday, I wrote:

"So far, the market has tested support at 1641.50....The current [ending at 9:00 AM EST] hourly bar tested 1649.63 [Mon's midpoint] and RSI is also near previous resistance just beneath the red bear market resistance zone. Therefore continued weakness through 1641.00 is likely...If a higher pivot low forms ahead of 1641.00, however, watch for more recovery gains towards 1657.00-1662.00."

--A higher pivot low formed at 1643.25 (9:36 AM EST), and the market recovered to 1656.75.

Declines since suggest a retest of the 1641.00 support area, and a sustained push below would target 1620.50. If a move above 1650.00 is seen before a 1641.00 retest, however, that would indicate further consolidation on the 60 minute chart.

ES Levels:

1675.25 -- Mon Aug 12 former low
1668.13 -- midpt Thur Aug 15
1662.00 -- Fri Aug 16 high
1657.00 -- Mon Aug 19 high, near 1656.75 (Tue Aug 20 high)

Resistances above

Supports below

1641.00 -- Tue Aug 20 low
1630.75 -- Fri Jul 5 former high, near 1629.13 [50% of 1553.25/1705.00]
1620.50 -- Mon Jul 1 former high
1608.25 -- Fri Jul 5 low, near 1610.16 [62.5% of 1553.25/1705.00]

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Update for Tue Aug 20

ESU13 8:58 AM EST
Yesterday, I wrote:

"..If there's a clear break above 1655.00, I'd expect a recovery towards 1668.13. If 1655.00 holds and declines continue, the next target is 1620.50."

-- Futures tested 1655.00 at 10:00 AM EST, but only reached 1657.00 (10:02 AM EST) before reversing lower.

So far, the market has tested support at 1641.50 (60 min higher low back from Jul 10). The current hourly bar tested 1649.63 (midpt yesterday's range) and RSI is also near previous resistance just beneath the red bear market resistance zone. 

Therefore continued weakness through 1641.00 is likely, eyeing 1620.50 next. If a higher pivot low forms ahead of 1641.00, however, watch for more recovery gains towards 1657.00-1662.00.

ES Levels:

1697.00 -- Thur Aug 8 high, near 1696.25 (Fri Aug 9 high)
1694.50 -- Tue Aug 13 high
1688.00 -- 60 min former low
1675.25 -- Mon Aug 12 former low
1668.13 -- midpt Thur Aug 15
1662.00 -- Fri Aug 16 high
1657.00 -- Mon Aug 19 high

Resistances above

Supports below

1641.00 -- current Aug 20 session low
1630.75 -- Fri Jul 5 former high, near 1629.13 [50% of 1553.25/1705.00]
1620.50 -- Mon Jul 1 former high
1608.25 -- Fri Jul 5 low, near 1610.16 [62.5% of 1553.25/1705.00]
1594.00 -- Wed Jul 3 low, near 1591.19 [75% of 1553.25/1705.00]

Monday, August 19, 2013

Skinny on the Mini for Mon Aug 19

ESU13 8:53 AM EST
Weekly chart: Broke below the prior week's inside bar range

Daily chart: Hovers near 37.5% (1648.09) retracement of the 1553.25/1705.00 advance.

60 min chart: Met 1649.00 (Jun 19 former high) initial target, and now 14 -d RSI shows bullish divergence forming. So, if there's a clear break above 1655.00, I'd expect a recovery towards 1668.13. If 1655.00 holds and declines continue, the next target is 1620.50.

ES Levels:

1697.00 -- Thur Aug 8 high, near 1696.25 (Fri Aug 9 high)
1694.50 -- Tue Aug 13 high
1688.00 -- 60 min former low
1675.25 -- Mon Aug 12 former low
1668.13 -- midpt Thur Aug 15
1662.00 -- Fri Aug 16 high
1655.00 -- current Aug 19 session high

Resistances above

Supports below

1641.50 -- 60 min higher low
1630.75 -- Fri Jul 5 former high, near 1629.13 [50% of 1553.25/1705.00]
1620.50 -- Mon Jul 1 former high
1608.25 -- Fri Jul 5 low, near 1610.16 [62.5% of 1553.25/1705.00]

Friday, August 16, 2013

Update for Fri Aug 16

ESU13 8:49 AM EST
Yesterday, I wrote:

"For bears to press on towards the next target at 1649.00, a confirming close under 1670.50 and the yellow dashed tentative trendline would be ideal."

-- Futures closed beneath those levels by 10:00 AM EST.

The recovery off today's 1653.75 intraday low aligned with bullish divergence on the 60 min RSI (14 pd). Therefore if a higher low forms ahead of 1653.75 and the recovery breaks above 1665.00, I'd expect further upside towards the 1675.25 former low.

If instead bears press on beneath 1653.75, 1649.00 would be the next target. That is likely to align with a new swing-based bullish divergence on the RSI, but you'd have to wait in see if that results in a recovery bounce or if the supply in this market is so dominant that bears would undo the "delay" of the potential swing bullish divergence very quickly. Beyond 1649.00, the next target would be 1620.50.

ES Levels:

1697.00 -- Thur Aug 8 high, near 1696.25 (Fri Aug 9 high)
1694.50 -- Tue Aug 13 high
1688.00 -- near 1687.13
1682.00 -- current Aug 15 session high
1675.25 -- Mon Aug 12 former low
1665.00 -- 60 min lower high, near 1666.13 (midpt Aug 15)

Resistances above

Supports below

1653.75 -- current Aug 16 session low
1649.00 -- former 60 min highs, also Wed Jun 19 former high, near 1648.09 [37.5% of 1553.25/1705.00]
1641.50 -- 60 min higher low
1630.75 -- Fri Jul 5 former high, near 1629.13 [50% of 1553.25/1705.00]
1620.50 -- Mon Jul 1 former high

1608.25 -- Fri Jul 5 low, near 1610.16 [62.5% of 1553.25/1705.00]

Thursday, August 15, 2013

Update for Thur Aug 15

ESU13 9:04 AM EST
Yesterday, I wrote:

"Notice how the action off the 1675.25 low is very similar to that from the 1680.50 low just a week ago...."

-- I've now marked that price action with numbers. These are not Elliott Wave counts or any sort of secret Gann count. These are "I've been watching the ES for over 12 years" counts ;). So yesterday, when I wrote my blog post, the market had just made the low at the second "5"

"...If this pattern is to repeat..."

-- The pattern repeated, like clockwork!

"...I'd expect a move higher towards 1694.50, then a reversal..."

-- High came in at 1693.25 (9:33 AM EST)

"...back below 1679.25..."

-- Market breached 1679.25 during the overnight session (6:03 PM EST)

"...for declines towards 1670.50."

-- Futures hit the 1670.50 target this morning at 8:33 AM EST.

Now, the price action over the next couple of hours is key. For bears to press on towards the next target at 1649.00, a confirming close under 1670.50 and the yellow dashed tentative trendline would be ideal. Any sort of pivot low forming, however, in line with the fact that 60 min RSI is at the "bear market support zone", would give room for a recovery towards 1677.00/1682.00.

ES Levels:

1697.00 -- Thur Aug 8 high, near 1696.25 (Fri Aug 9 high)
1694.50 -- Tue Aug 13 high
1688.00 -- near 1687.13
1682.00 -- current Aug 15 session high
1677.00 -- former 60 min low

Resistances above

Supports below

1658.75 -- Wed Jul 10 former high, near 1657.50 (Thu Jul 11 low) 
1649.00 -- former 60 min highs, also Wed Jun 19 former high, near 1648.09 [37.5% of 1553.25/1705.00]
1641.50 -- 60 min higher low
1630.75 -- Fri Jul 5 former high, near 1629.13 [50% of 1553.25/1705.00]


Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Update for Wed Aug 14

ESU13 9:04 AM EST
Yesterday, I wrote:

"If there's follow through below 1686.75, futures would be back on course towards 1670.50 (and 1694.00 would be the "third lower high" off the 1705.00 contract high)."

Futures continued below 1686.75 after the noted RSI and price trendline breaks. However, they only reached 1679.25 (10:17 AM EST). Futures then rallied higher to retest 1694.00, before turning back lower, in line with 60 min RSI bearish divergence.

Notice how the action off the 1675.25 low is very similar to that from the 1680.50 low just a week ago (marked by yellow rectangle) -- a steady move higher, a severe drop, a rally that retests the high with RSI posting bearish divergence, and a subsequent churn lower.

If this pattern is to repeat, I see the current price area being related to the area with the asterisk. Therefore, I'd expect a move higher towards 1694.50, then a reversal back below 1679.25 for declines towards 1670.50.

ES Levels:

1705.00 -- Aug 2/Aug 5 contract high
1700.38 -- midpt Aug 2
1697.00 -- Thur Aug 8 high, near 1696.25 (Fri Aug 9 high)
1694.50 -- Tue Aug 13 high
1690.00 -- 60 min lower high, also "up price spike" bar low

Resistances above

Supports below

1682.75 -- 60 min former low
1679.25 -- Tue Aug 13 low
1675.25 -- Mon Aug 12 low
1670.50 -- Fri Jul 26 low
1665.75 -- Wed Jul 17 low, near 1667.06 [25% of 1553.25 (Jun 24 low)/1705.00 (Aug 2 high) advance]
1649.00 -- former 60 min highs, also Wed Jun 19 former high,  near 1648.09 [37.5% of 1553.25/1705.00]